2018 NBA Season Preview Series: New Orleans Pelicans

I have to say, I did not ever think we’d have a tie when it came to this blog. Usually I have an idea of where the stoolies are going to go, and when I saw how close this was on Friday I figured things would eventually separate between Indiana and New Orleans. And yet, when I went back this morning to see who won so I could avoid doing as much work as possible today, I realized it was going to have to require another quick poll to determine the winner. So congratulations Pelicans fans because today is your day. As always if you are also looking for ways to kill your day you can see our previous previews here, here, and here. The Pelicans enter next season with some legit expectations, but before we can talk about what may be in store for their future, it’s important to remind ourselves just how great their 2017-18 season was.

2017-18 Season Highlights

By all account, last season was one of the best seasons in Pelicans franchise history. I’m not being dramatic or anything either when you take a closer look. Their 28 wins was the 3rd most in franchise history, and the most since the 2007-08 season. Their second place finish in their division was the second highest ever and best since that same 2007 season. No Pelicans team played at a faster pace (100.5), and only one team (you guessed it, 2007) had a higher offensive rating than the 109.6 the Pelicans put up last year. Their run to the second round of the playoffs was the deepest they’ve been in 11 years, so it’s safe to say the Pelicans enter the 2018-19 season with all the confidence in the world. They know they can win even without Boogie, and if we take a look at their roster, this is how it looks at this current time

At $117,082,347 the Pelicans have just the 17th most expensive roster in the league next season. I’d say that’s a pretty good return on their investment. They are in a good position where all of their main guys are under 30 and you see a nice combination of salary numbers, with some contracts that definitely are tradable if that time ever comes. Now obviously this roster looks pretty different from what they were working with last season, as Boogie, Rondo, Dante Cunningham, Jameer Nelson, and a few others are no longer there. Also remember they only had Solomon Hill for 12 games as he tore his hamstring one year ago today before the start of last season. Him being back to 100% is going to give them a solid wing option moving forward. Last year the Pelicans were unique in that they would play a lot of three PG lineups with Rondo/Moore/Holiday all sharing the floor. That trio played 1,146 minutes together and was a +4.1 and I think a lot of questions about the Pelicans spacing and shooting was answered with E’Twaun Moore having a bit of a breakout season. Obviously Holiday and Rondo were great too, but it was Moore that I felt like really allowed Alvin Gentry the flexibility to play all those guys at once. It’ll be interesting to see if Elfrid Payton can fill that third guard role this time around. In looking back as to why the Pelicans were able to have so much success, a lot of it had to do with how even they were on the road and at home. In both scenarios the Pelicans were 24-17, and those 24 road wins were the third most in the entire Western Conference (5th most in NBA). Now obviously the Pelicans are nothing without their franchise player in Anthony Davis, but the good news is last year marked the second year in a row that AD played at least 75 games. For a guy who’s previous career high was 68 games, that’s significant. I think we all as basketball fans want Davis to be as healthy as possible, and it appears that he’s gotten over his pretty brutal stretch of bad luck.

When the Pelicans lost Boogie last season, it wasn’t crazy for you to think their season was over. It was the end of January and the Pelicans were 27-21. They then lose five of their next six, and the vultures were swirling. But then something happened. During this little losing streak they traded for Mirotic, and the next thing we knew the Pelicans went on a crazy run of 10 wins in a row. They were exploding offensively, dropping at least 114 points in every win. To be more exact, they averaged 124 points a night during the streak and by the first week of March stood at 38-26. They weren’t done with this type of offensive explosion either, as they also won their last 5 games of the season (including a win over GS), where they averaged 121 points a night. All this offensive production without Boogie didn’t seem possible, but that’s where you can’t discount what Mirotic did for this offense. He gave them the much needed spacing to allow AD and their guards to attack the rim, but he also was a legit beast from deep. He slid right in and made 2.2 3PM a night (which is exactly what Boogie made) and when you look closer at his on/off splits, it’s safe to say this trade worked out great for NO.

During the minutes that Mirotic was on the court the Pelicans had a net rating of +4.1. The second he came off, that dropped to +1.4. Not a crazy drop but certainly not insignificant. If I had to guess, he’s going to have just as important of a role this upcoming season. In addition to Mirotic, I’m interested in seeing what type of follow up season we’re going to get from Jrue Holiday. Last year was the best year of his career (19/4.5/6.0/1.5 on 49/33% splits with 1.5 3PM) as he played in 81 total games which was the most since his second year in the league back in 2010-11. Given his contract and the fact that he’s the highest paid player on the team, I can understand Pelicans fans expecting him to play at an All Star level. Now given that he plays in the West it’s not a surprise to me that he didn’t make the team. but his production was certainly among the best. His 110 Ortg was the highest it’s ever been, and we’ve seen him start to feel more and more comfortable from behind the arc. Add in the fact that he made the All NBA Defensive First team, and there’s no reason to think Holiday won’t continue to get better.

So how do the new guys fit into this system? How will Julius Randle and his skillset fit? I remember when Randle first signed there, not everyone on the internet loved the move. To me, I’m a fan of it just because I think it gives the Pelicans a certain dimension they didn’t have last season. As a Laker, Randle had a bit of a breakout season, here’s what that looked like

I don’t think he’ll take over the starting spot from Mirotic, but when you look at the ways the Pelicans were effective last year, for example using the roll man in the P&R (3rd in points per possession), there is going to be plenty of opportunity here for Randle to showcase his development. The Pelicans also LOVE to run handoffs, a situation that they led the league in points per possession (1.04) in, so I could definitely see Randle starting on the perimeter, getting a handoff and attacking the rim. He has a certain level of athleticism that Mirotic doesn’t, and as long as you have shooters around him and AD, that should theoretically work out well.

On the defensive end, the Pelicans were 9th in defended FG%, and thrived especially in the midrange (39%), and the corners (35%). When it came to defending P&R, something almost every NBA team relies heavily upon, the Pelicans were tied for the 3rd fewest points per possession at 0.79. Opponents shot just 40% on those type of plays, so I’ll be interested if this regresses at all given that good defenders like Rondo are gone. If there’s one thing the Pelicans do well, it’s play with crazy energy. Second in the NBA in loose balls recovered (9.3) and 4th in contested shots (64.7) this is not a team that just mails it in on one end and then just relies on Anthony Davis to do freak things on the other. Alvin Gentry has this team playing defense and to me that’s why we’ve seen his upwards trajectory from them. We all remember the domination the was the NO/POR series, and in my opinion a huge part of that was the fact they kept the Blazers to 95, 102, and 102 points in the first three games of that series. Now obviously the Warriors demolished them, but they are a different animal all together.

With the West getting even more loaded this offseason, the pressure is on NO to back up the season they just had to prove that it was no fluke and they should be considered at the very least a legit playoff team. This was a group that was 2 wins away from being the 3 seed, but also two losses away from being out of the playoffs altogether. They showed they could win in the face of some serious adversity, so now let’s see what they can do with actual expectations.

Official Greenie Prediction: 47 wins